Phoenix Real Estate Market Update & Water Outlook

A lil' bit about lil' ole me:

I recently took a class on connecting with folks at a deeper level via social media. My comfort zone is to focus on stats, graphs, and data. So, I'm gonna try something a bit out of my usual and see what you think. (Yes, pretty please reply backif you are reading this and have an opinion one way or the other.)

My 23 year old son just moved out about 1.5 weeks ago and I'm going through some adjustments. Like most young adults, he was rarely here and when he was here he was always behind closed doors (bedroom or bathroom) or in the kitchen with earbuds in. Still, getting to this point, plus other challenges in my life, such as being a Realtor trying to make a living in a funky market, was rough and got me depressed.

Having lots of experience with depression, from my mother, twin sister, son, friends, and myself, I know lots of techniques to turn that internal anger into something useful. One tool that works well for me is to volunteer. In addition to helping my religious organization, I've been active with a non-profit called Free Arts for Abused Children.

If you have an interest in volunteering in some way and are looking for some suggestions, let me know. I'm happy to share details on different NPO (non-profit organizations) that I've had experience with over the years. You will be so glad that you did!

Water Supply:

Last May, I did a segment on water, so it is time to talk about this again. (Yeah, kinda feels a bit like homework.)

The Valley of the Sun gets its water from 3 sources: the Colorado River (which starts in Colorado, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Utah and feeds into Lake Mead and Lake Powell) and is controlled by the Central AZ Project- CAP); our local reservoirs (Lakes Roosevelt, Apache, and Verde Lakes), and underground aquifers.

Long story short, our small local reservoirs are doing fabulous. The Colorado River is screwed. We ARE still in a drought.

Here are some sites to keep you informed, if this matters to you:

• Weekly and local details are here.

• Cool maps to click on for fun.

• If you want to know which cities have underground water, click here and look at the map above. If you are a pessimist/realist about the potential lack of future rainfall, then the green areas are where you will want to live for the next 20+ years or more. If the weather continues with 1200 year drought, this map's info will be used by future buyers on where to purchase a home.

Does water supply really matter in the desert for housing prices? Yeppers. Goodyear, for example, right now gets all of its water from underground aquifers and that water tests at 1/3 the salinity of ocean water. The City has rights to the CO river, but it never set up a system to transport and treat that water before. For more details on this complicated, and expensive solution, click here for an article.

What is the real estate outlook for the Valley of the Sun in the future?

• The Greater Phoenix Economic Council has been working very hard to shmooze larger corporations to bring their headquarters here. We are #2 in the nation. We Rock!!!!

• More people moving here means more people will need homes. Would it be helpful for me to put a housing permit graph in here to show that we are still very much underbuilding for the population growth? Or do you believe me?

• Now don't freak out, but if you are waiting for the market to get "better, "buyers are about to be screwed. Again!

• With only 12,500 active listings without a contract, we are once again approaching a dire shortage of homes for sale.

• Even a modest increase in demand is likely to force prices higher and quickly recover the ground lost over the past 12 months. The median sales price is down almost 9% compared to a year ago, but has recovered nearly 4% over the last 3 months.

If you would like chat about anything real estate, simply reply to this email or call/text me at

602-730-2143 for more details.

Is it too soon to start talking about a home buying frenzy? You decide.

• With only 12,500 active listings without a contract we are once again approaching a dire shortage of homes for sale. Even a modest increase in demand is likely to force prices higher and quickly recover the ground lost over the past 12 months. The median sales price is down almost 9% compared to a year ago but has recovered nearly 4% over the last 3 months.

• I have some fun news. If you bought a home any time before February 2022 or after September 2022, you officially have appreciation. The 7 months in the middle of 2022 buyers are still belly up with depreciation, but not for long. You'll be back to appreciating soon.

• 82% of all listings are closing escrow. That is about our norm. The highest it reached since the Cromford Report started tracking it was in March 2022 and was 93%.

• Our "happy" place for the volume of listings in MLS, at least prior to 2020, was 17k to 20k. We are at 11,374, down 27% from January of this year.

• For those who have owned their homes for 5+ years, you might be getting close to the maximum allowed appreciation before you have to start paying taxes on the rest. Although interest rates are higher than we want, it is unrealistic to expect they will get back into even the 4%s within our lifetimes. The historic norm is in 7% range. If you don't want to pay extra taxes, and have a lot of equity in your home, it is worth considering selling to downsize or move to a "better" neighborhood. It is relatively easy to buy and sell right now. I can't promise it will be that way 6 months from now.?

If you are considering buying a new build, or a resale home, call/text me at 602-730-2143. I would love to be "Your Dedicated Home Advocate."

Are we in a market we've never seen before? Nope. We are similar, at the moment, to 2017 and 2018. Both solid years!

• The new home market remains robust with most publicly listed home builders in an optimistic mood, supported by their stock prices hitting new highs in the last few days. If only the Feds would take some Xanax and let the market have some alone time to relax. It feels to me like the Feds are helicopter parents and the market just wants to sit on its bed and listen to music for a few months. (Ok, that was a total flashback to having a teenager, AAARRRGGGHHH!!!!.)

• A year ago the market was weakening fast, but pricing was approaching its peak of $306.46 per sq. ft. and closings were still running high, fueled by the unwise purchasing frenzy of institutional investors and buyers. The slump that followed in the second half of 2022 is now well behind us and the market is displaying increasing resilience despite interest rates that are far higher than during most of the last 10 years.

• The Cromford Market Index, CMI, for all of Maricopa County is at 83.1 for buyers (16.9% lower than "normal") and listings are at 56.4 (43.6% lower than "normal.") Prices are already on their way back up again.

• Let's talk about the elephant in the room. If you have been watching the news, or online alleged "influencers" you will see that some of them have been saying the sky is going to fall. I have oodles of graphs I could share if you want more data. I've got plenty to show anyone interested in reality vs eye-catching headlines that are BS. (Can you tell I have an opinion on that stuff? lol)

• I just couldn't control my desire to have another graph. (Maybe I have a graph addiction issue?) Below is the Market Cycle. I think it speaks for itself. At least you can't say I didn't warn you.

If you would like to chat about down payment assistance, credit, home warranty options or if now is a good time to buy for your situation, please either reply to this email or call/text me at 602-730-2143.

Follow me on Tiktok, Instagram, and Facebook at "NancywRealtor" for all sorts of real estate content and some weird randomness thrown in for fun.

In fact, I've started doing different series specifically tailored to for Buyers, Sellers, and Rebters, We'll cover topics such as negotiation techniques, home improvement, credit scores, escrow hurdles, marekt updates, recent news articles, and so much more.

Nancy Wittenberg