Phoenix Housing Market Update: Buyer Power Surges as 2024 Uncertainty Looms

Shhhhhh. The market is sleeping. Its tired from being anemic all year long.

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Mortgage Interest rates are headed back up again. WTH!!!!

• sales $/SF of $289.79, which is the average for all areas and types across the ARMLS database, were up a surprising 1.6% from the $285.20. This was higher than expected.

• Exactly like last month: The apparent volatility is partly due to the lower closing numbers we have all year long.

• (This is why I shushed you in the first sentence. We don't know if the housing market is a sleeping beauty, napping toddler, or a hungry bear that will come out by spring of 2025. Whatever is waiting for us in next few months, it will be whatever it will be. I refuse to stress about it any more.)

• Demand remains weak and stable while supply continues to rise.However, we would expect supply to peak over the next week and then decline a little throughout the rest of 2024.

• The number of homes listed for sale today is about 150 less than the highest peak we've had in well over the past 4 years. There are homes to choose from, though much of the current stock has been picked over and is stale.

Are you considering buying or selling a home? Reply to this email or text me at 602-730-2143.

The Phoenix Metro area is at 87 on the Cromford Market Index. Can't you just feel your stomach as our roller coaster of a market is continuing its fall!!!!

• The volume of homes for sale is much higher than the number of buyers getting homes into escrow. This means, buyers can ask for closing cost concessions, meaning the seller pays towards the buyer's costs, and even my compensation.

• Buyers have MORE power then they've had for MANY years!!!! And that is NO exaggeration. The housing-caused Great Recession was the last time we saw this strong of a buyer's market.

• Will it last in 2025? Let's consider the possible outcomes:

  • If we have an economicRECESSION, our housing market will take off like a rocket. The secret ingredient to recessions is that mortgage interest rates go down, further down than at any other time. Lower interest rates dramatically improve housing affordability. Remember the massive increase in home values after covid?

  • If we have an economic HAY DAY, then one of 2 things will most likely happen:

    • Our housing market will continue to be anemic. All the buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines will renew their lease for another year.

    • Oodles of buyers will get tired of hoping the mortgage interest rates will go down and just accept we'll stay in the 6-7% range for a while longer. They will simply have to lower their expectations for the perfect home, and buy a less-pretty starter home. Once that starter home appreciates, and their wages increase enough, they'll sell that "meh" house and buy something that makes their hearts flutter.

• Which one do you think will happen? I would for you to respond and let me know.

A warm thank you to the Cromford Report, and Tina Tamborer, for her invaluable insights and data for this update.

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pick up your phone call/text me immediately. Let's coordinate the best way for me to reach out and assist them.

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