2025 Housing Market Update: Prices Dip, Inventory Shifts & What It Means for Buyers in Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert & Queen Creek
Does anyone have a crystal ball that works for predicting 2025? Mine broke.
Thinking of Buying a Home to be settled in place for the next housing boom???
You're not alone—and you're not crazy for wanting a place to call your own.
Yes, the market can feel a little wild.
Yes, interest rates aren’t what they were a few years ago.
But guess what? You're already paying a mortgage—just probably someone else’s.
Let's talk about building equity, creating stability, and finding the right strategy for you.
Whether it’s your first home or your forever home, I’m here to help you make smart, confident decisions.
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My graph skills just went up a notch. Pretty, huh? Oh yeah....and housing values are going down.
For the monthly period ending April 15, sales $/SF are down a substantial 2.8% from the $314.81 we now measure for March 15. Cromford Report correctly forecasted a fall, but the scale of the decline is far larger than they anticipated - even exceeding the bottom end of our 90% confidence interval.
The median sales price confirms this change and has moved down over the past month from $465,000 to $450,000,an unusually severe monthly decline of 3.2%.
On April 15 the pending listings for all areas and types show an average list $/SF of $322.13, down 3.6% from the reading for March 15. This suggests that closed prices will move lower still between now and mid-May.
We are now expecting annual appreciation to move below zero by mid-May.
For a couple of months, we have been reporting weaknesses in the average $/SF for active listings and a significant downward trend in the average $/SF for listings under contract. These are both precursors for a drop in the average $/SF for closed listings. However, this average has stayed stubbornly high and only in the last two weeks has it shown significant weakness.
Like Wile E Coyote running beyond a cliff edge, closed prices did not seem to realize they were defying gravity even when the Cromford® Market Index moved a long way below 90.They have now looked down and realized gravity and the laws of supply and demand cannot be defied for very long.
Are you considering buying or selling a home? Reply to this email or text me at 602-730-2143.
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The sky isn't falling. There are some clouds, though not with foreclosures or short sales.
Among those pending listings we have 98.7% normal, 0.5% in REOs and 0.8% in pre-foreclosures (including a very small number of short sales).The level of foreclosure activity is similar to last month and it remains low by long-term standards,though the trend in notices of trustee sale is moving steadily upwards.
Notices of Trustee Sales look like they might be ticking up a little bit, maybe. Still, those numbers are still lower than the early 2000s.
New single family home sales in Chandler, Gilbert, Mesa, and Queen Creek:
Only 2 were built between $350-400k.
32 were built from $400-500k.
130 new ones from $500-600k.
177 new builds from $600-800k.
When you hear anyone say that housing affordability is rough, a contributing factor is the lack of starter homes.Those of us from Gen X and older know that the path to financial security begins with having stable, consistent housing prices which only comes with owning a home. The longer it takes younger generations to begin their economic stability, the less money those masses will have when it is time to retire.
Do you have any questions about this or anything housing related? Reply to this mail or text me and I'm happy to answer them.
A warm thank you to the Cromford Report, and Tina Tamborer, for her invaluable insights and data throughout this update.
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When you hear a friend, family member, or co-work mention they are entertaining the idea of buying or selling a home,
pick up your phone call/text me immediately. Let's coordinate the best way for me to reach out and assist them.
Simply reply to this email or call/text me at 602-730-2143.
Coldwell Banker Realty
1640 S Stapley Dr. #241, Mesa AZ 85204
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Nancy Wittenberg
