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Phoenix Metro Housing Market Update: Prices Dip, Rates Rise, Buyers Gain Power

October 04, 20243 min read

Short and sweet. (Really, this time!!!) Anyone going nuts with too much election stuff haunting us everywhere?

Click here to learn about a few easy steps you can take for your house to sell for more money.


Mortgage Interest rates are headed back up again. WTH!!!!

  • The last 5 months have been extremely volatile for price per sq. ft. - up nearly 5% one month and down 3% next.This is partly because of the lower closing numbers. A smaller sample size tends to create more volatility in the averages. The median sales prices have been much more stable since the high-end of the market has little to no effect on medians.

  • Median sale prices for the last 30 days are down 3.0%.

  • This latest drop is more significant because seasonally we usually see an increase between September and October. With the Cromford® Market Index dropping below 95,we have buyers lacking enthusiasm and sellers lacking confidence.Price cuts are frequent and numerous. Bargains sell quicker than homes advertised at full market value.

  • Rental rates in MLS for 1k-2k sf properties have remained flat for 3 years. This trend doesn't look like it will change any time soon.

  • Among those pending listings we have 99.1% normal, 0.2% in REOs and 0.8% in pre-foreclosures (including a very small number of short sales). The level of foreclosure activity remains very low, and distress has fallen since last month.

  • FHA mortgage interestrates went from 5.63% on 9/16/24 to being 6.32% on 10/21/24. If you want to time the market, you'll need to move faster than ever at finding a home when rates go down. These rates are acting like a bucking bronco and buyers keep falling off before the bell rings. (So very sad!)

Are you considering buying or selling a home? Reply to this email or text me at 602-730-2143.



The Phoenix Metro area is in a low balanced market.

  • Buyers have someserious POWER right nowand most likely through the end of the year. After that, who knows?

  • The west side of the Valley has fared worse than the east side, so far.

  • The Mesa gauge above is from the Cromford Market Index. Supply is 38% below "normal," and buyers are 30% below. That puts Mesa at a weak seller's market. Here are some other city's indexes.

    • Seller's Markets: weakest to strongest:

      • Tempe 102

      • Phoenix 112

      • Gilbert: 118

      • Chandler 129

    • ?Buyer's Markets: buyers have all the control and sellers need to pay them large incentives to take the houses off their hands.

      • Entire metro is at a paltry 92

      • Queen Creek 70

      • Buckeye 61 (damn that hurts home prices!)

A warm thank you to the Cromford Report, and Tina Tamborer, for her invaluable insights and data for this update.


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Phoenix Metro real estateMesa housing marketChandler real estate updateGilbert home pricesTempe market trends
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Nancy Wittenberg

Phone: 602-730-2143 Email: [email protected]

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