Click to watch me explain it in a YouTube short.

Reply to this email and let me know your thoughts on this MAJOR change.

Instead of the usual pretty market update video, here is original content of mine you should know about. The title is: PROTECT ??yourself: home?? LENDER might NOT provide an ACCURATE pre-qualification ?? Click here to watch the video.

• Seasonly adjustedUNEMPLOYMENT in Maricopa is going down. We're at 3.3, while the nation is increasing and is at 4.1.

• The 2-year Treasury has been valued less than the 10-year Treasury bonds, which means it is inverted. Every time in the past when that has happened we go into a recession. (This basically means that bond buyers think our long term economic outlook is better than our short term.)It has been that way for 14 months straight now.

• The HOUSING market WANTS a RECESSION.

• FHA is close to 5.5%. Convenational is about 6.5% right now.Mortgage Rateshave been fluctuating much faster than ever before.

• Accepted contracts for weekly counts for last month are the lowest AGAIN for this month in the past 10 years. (I'm sure it is lower for longer than that, but that is the duration of this chart.)

• The overall Valley is officially in a balanced market.

• On the Cromford Market Index (100 is balanced), the strongest Seller's market city is Fountain Hills at 156. Next is Chandler at 158. Gilbert is 134, while Mesa is 121. Buyer's markets are on the outskirts, such as Maricopa and Buckeye.

• Directly from Cromford:

  • For the monthly period ending August 15, we are currently recording a sales $/SF of $281.34 averaged for all areas and types across the ARMLS database. This is down a massive 4.2% from the $293.64 we now measure for July 15. Our forecast range midpoint was $287.29. We correctly forecast a decline, but the size was almost twice what we anticipated - 4.2% rather than the 2.2% we calculated. The actual result was so severe that it fell below our 90% confidence interval. For the third month in a row, the market dropped further than expected. Sellers seem to have far less confidence than they should have considering the actual state of the market. Price cuts are coming fast and concessions are at a high level.

  • The last 3 months have been abnormally weak for sales prices, following an unusually strong April. We believe the weakness has probably now run its course and prices are likely to rebound. If this does not happen over the next month then we expect this to happen by mid-October.

Are you considering buying or selling a home? Reply to this email or text me at 602-730-2143.

Overall supply is increasing and demand has been decreasing. Now what?

• Instead of putting a bunch of charts up, I'm going to tell you what they say and if you want to see them simply ask. I love charts, so feel free to ask.

  • Active listings in Maricopa are about 13k, when counting condos to single family homes. This isn't a big deal, there aren't too many homes for us.

  • We are in the usual seasonal slump for summer. Luxury homes came off the market starting late spring and won't come back on until the weather changes. Plus, unless you HAVE to move in summer, why the heck would you? (I moved here from CA in July and it was 113 that day.)

  • Listing success rate, by %. Tolleson is the BEST in the valley followed closely by Chandler. Gilbert is #4. Mesa is #25. (Ouch!) Tempe isn't on the list, so it is below Mesa.(YIKES for sellers HECK YEAH for buyers!)

  • Rents have been FLAT since August 2021. Don't believe me? If I didn't have these details I probably wouldn't either. Apartments have been raising rents for years and the largest ones in the County are being sued by our Attorney General for price fixing.The report I'm looking at is purely from MLS, where prices were never fixed. Fair access to information holds businesses accountable to the public.

A warm thank you to the Cromford Report, and Tina Tamborer, for her invaluable insights and data for this update.

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When you hear a friend, family member, or co-work mention they are entertaining the idea of buying or selling a home,

pick up your phone call/text me immediately. Let's coordinate the best way for me to reach out and assist them.

Simply reply to this email or call/text me at 602-730-2143.

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Nancy Wittenberg